Is Today Weird?

Today’s weather weirdness

Let’s consult the weather records.

Comparing daily weather with the same date in previous years.

Calculating… · consulting the records
52.95° N / 1.15° WTODAY’S FORECAST · HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Weather in perspective

A day in perspective
Explore the weather details

Gathering four little pieces of evidence. The first visit can take a moment: there is quite a lot of history.

We compare daily weather with the same date in the ERA5 historical reconstruction. Today’s result is provisional until the day is over.

TURN BACK THE CALENDAR

Every birthday has a story.

The music, the names, the world you arrived in.

FOLLOW A NAME THROUGH TIME

What’s in a name?

Its rise, fall, roots and life in print.

A DIFFERENT PATCH OF SKY

Where shall we look?
A PAGE FROM THE PAST

Every day has a story.

Discover the weather, notable birthday matches and the number-one song where chart records are available. The historical archive runs about six days behind. February 29 is compared only with other leap days.
NOT MAGIC. JUST WEATHER.

A small instrument.
A long memory.

We compare four daily measures with the same month and day at the same location: highest and lowest temperature, precipitation (measured as water equivalent), and maximum sustained wind at 10 metres. Daily low is not strictly a night-only temperature; wind is not gust speed.

The baseline is Open-Meteo’s consistent ERA5 reconstruction from 1940 through the latest available archive date. These are modelled estimates informed by observations, not a complete local weather-station record. The selected historical day is excluded from its own comparison.

For each measure we count values at or below and at or above yours. We add one to each tail count and divide by the sample size plus one. Twice the smaller tail (capped at one) gives a conservative two-sided tail fraction, p. Category weirdness is 100 × (1 − p)⁴. Ties count in both tails, so a common dry day is ordinary.

The small date average below each value is the arithmetic mean for that measure across the same calendar date in the comparison record. It excludes the selected historical day and any missing values.

The overall score is the highest of the four category scores. One exceptional condition can carry the day; several mildly unusual ones cannot pile up into a dramatic score. The fourth power keeps middling deviations modest.

A score of 73 out of 100 is a playful weather index, not a 73% probability or an overall historical percentile. Each comparison uses strict warmer/wetter/etc. counts. Rounded percentages and a limited sample cannot establish return periods or all-time records.

Today uses forecast daily totals and extremes. Forecast models and ERA5 have different resolutions; small differences should not be over-interpreted. This is a historical comparison, not climate-trend adjustment or a severe-weather warning service.

History spans a changing climate. Leap-day samples are smaller. All four measures need at least 15 valid comparison years. Local dates use the location’s timezone. Free Open-Meteo service is intended for non-commercial use.